December 18, 2014

Will AT&T shed copper, fibre-up, or buy more content - and what are the lessons?


We’ve just published a new research paper Will AT&T shed copper, fibre-up, or buy more content - and what are the lessons?’. AT&T’s residential fixed operation is underperforming as faster cable connections take over. It would probably like to trim its footprint or get out, and invest in fibre and its content business model. Is that really an option, and what are the lessons for other telcos?

You can read an excerpt of the report here

For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.

ATandT_Reporting_Segment_Revenue_Growth.jpg

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December 15, 2014

Regulation, Americas, Europe, APAC, Cloud: Telco 2.0 News Review

GSMA ups the pressure on Oettinger; UK MNOs meet Javid halfway; TIA threatens investment strike over Title II, VZ says it doesn’t care

The GSMA fires its lobby cannon again: Director General Anne Bouverot says it’s ridiculous that there are almost a hundred MNOs in Europe, compared to “three or four” in the US, and further argues that wholesaling is likely to “reduce” incentives to invest. The context of this is that they’re trying to influence the new European Commissioner to on the European Parliament’s text of the next telecoms directive.

Continue reading "Regulation, Americas, Europe, APAC, Cloud: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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December 11, 2014

Samsung and Google versus Apple?


We’ve just published a new research paper ‘Samsung and Google versus Apple?’. Apple is weakening Samsung Electronics’ grip in the high-end of the handset market, lowering the Korean company’s profitability and capacity to compete effectively. After a series of largely unsuccessful attempts to break into software and services, a daring option for Samsung is to seek a strong, strategic alliance with Google to enable both companies to mount a serious challenge to Apple’s dominance in the affluent demographic. Telcos could back such an alliance in return for a profitable role in the service layer. This report analyses the strategic rationale for such an approach. (December 2014, Dealing with Disruption Stream)

You can read an excerpt of the report here

We’ll also be exploring the topic of Dealing with Disruption at OnFuture ARABIA and OnFuture EMEA (21-22 April, Dubai) (9-10 June, London), and are initiating coverage of a new research programme on Dealing with Disruption . For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.


Samsung & Google Vs Apple

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December 8, 2014

Vodafone, Liberty Global, 5G, Spectrum, Wire: Telco 2.0 News Review

Last week saw our Digital Asia 2014 event. A big ‘thank you’ to our sponsors, the speakers and the 220+ participants who made it both valuable and enjoyable.

As an early preview of findings, the brainstorm found that developing innovation skills was the top priority in the region, followed by improving the technological infrastructure, while regulation and under-developed early-stage investment communities were the biggest barriers to overcome. We’ll report back more in coming weeks.

Next: a diary date: OnFuture Arabia, 21-22 April 2015, Dubai. Please email us at contact@telco2.net if you’d like to know more or get involved.

Vodafone denies bidding for Liberty Global; might bid for Metroweb; 5G visions; EE rural small cells

At an analyst meeting this week, Vodafone tried to convince everyone there’s nothing in this Liberty Global bid talk. A deal would give the carrier a huge broadband network, plus content, and fix its fibre backhaul problem, but it would also be hugely expensive and problematic from a regulatory point of view.

This is of course being driven by the BT-O2 story. Stéphane Richard of Orange seems to know something about it, saying that BT would make an announcement “before Christmas”.

Continue reading "Vodafone, Liberty Global, 5G, Spectrum, Wire: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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December 1, 2014

Altice x PTel, Vodafone, Liberty Global, Chinese broadband: Telco 2.0 News Review

  • ‘Digital Asia 2014’ Executive Brainstorm and Innovation Forum, run by STL Partners in collaboration with Telkom Indonesia, is designed to equip 250 specially-invited business leaders from across the region’s telecoms, enterprise and technology sectors with new, breakthrough ideas, methods and tools on how to grow significant new revenues in the next 12-18 months leveraging Mobile, Cloud and Big Data.

    Altice bid for Portugal Telecom is a go at €7.4bn; TI sells Italian towers ahead of Brazilian consolidation

    Altice Group, the holding company of Numericable and SFR, has entered exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of Portugal Telecom. They offered €7.4bn for the company’s Portuguese assets, minus the infamous Rioforte bonds, which presumably means that Oi gets to exit from its deal with PTel ready to take on whatever is coming in the Brazilian market. Altice, which already owns an enterprise ISP and a cable network in Portugal, is presenting the deal as being all about fixed-mobile convergence - it’s worth noting that PTel owns a lot of FTTH assets.

    Continue reading "Altice x PTel, Vodafone, Liberty Global, Chinese broadband: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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  • November 27, 2014

    Five Principles for Disruptive Strategy


    We’ve just published a new research paper ‘Five Principles for Disruptive Strategy’. What is disruption, when is it a good idea, and what do you do when it happens to you? We illustrate five principles of disruptive strategy based on our analysis of the telecoms and adjacent markets over the past eight years. The analysis covers both principles of creating and defending against disruption.

    You can read an excerpt of the report here

    For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.


    Figure 4  KPNs SMS volumes have continued to decline since 2010.jpg

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    November 24, 2014

    America-T-Movil, BT Cellnet 2.0, PSTN transition, Free’s cloud - Telco 2.0 News Review

    ‘Digital Asia 2014’ Executive Brainstorm and Innovation Forum, run by STL Partners in collaboration with Telkom Indonesia, is designed to equip 250 specially-invited business leaders from across the region’s telecoms, enterprise and technology sectors with new, breakthrough ideas, methods and tools on how to grow significant new revenues in the next 12-18 months leveraging Mobile, Cloud and Big Data.

    America T-Movil? AT&T after Nextel.mx, TI after Oi, Oi wants to sell PTel to Altice

    Will America Movil make a bid for T-Mobile USA? Deutsche Telekom CEO Timotheus Höttges mentioned them in a list of hypothetical buyers that also included DISH and also Comcast, but denied being in any talks or indeed really wanting to sell any time soon. America Movil, of course, faces the arrival of real competition in Mexico and is keen to diversify. It also owns pre-pay MVNO Tracfone, which is under heavy pressure from T-Mobile’s price cuts.

    Continue reading "America-T-Movil, BT Cellnet 2.0, PSTN transition, Free's cloud - Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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    November 20, 2014

    Cloud: What is the role of telcos in cloud services in 2015?


    We’ve just published a new research paper ‘Cloud: What is the role of telcos in cloud services in 2015?’. Service providers need to grow new revenues. The cloud market looks potentially attractive, and is growing at about 30% CAGR, but it is dominated in many areas by Amazon, Google and Microsoft. So is Cloud part of the answer for telcos, and if so how? This report looks at the role of the service provider in the cloud market and products that service providers might offer in 2015.

    You can read an excerpt of the report here

    We’ll also be exploring the topic of Cloud and Enterprise ICT further at Digital Asia (2-4 December, Bali), and are initiating coverage of a new research programme on Cloud and Enterprise ICT . For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.
    Cloud article.jpg

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    November 17, 2014

    Title II, Fibre-to-the-Cell, Skype for Browsers, HD WiFi, AWS: Telco 2.0 News Review

    ‘Digital Asia 2014’ Executive Brainstorm and Innovation Forum, run by STL Partners in collaboration with Telkom Indonesia, is designed to equip 250 specially-invited business leaders from across the region’s telecoms, enterprise and technology sectors with new, breakthrough ideas, methods and tools on how to grow significant new revenues in the next 12-18 months leveraging Mobile, Cloud and Big Data.

    Obama’s Title II speech uncorks lobby-fest; AT&T “pauses” fibre build they’d already stopped

    Fight! Fight! So last week, President Obama said he wanted the FCC to reclassify broadband under Title II. This week, FCC chairman Tom Wheeler put off a vote on the issue, asking for more time to “consult” the industry.

    AT&T, meanwhile, responded by “pausing” its gigabit fibre rollout, a threat that would be more convincing if they hadn’t announced that their broadband rollout under Project VIP was over in their Q3 results a week earlier, with a $3bn cut in their CAPEX guidance (see News Review for the 10th November).

    Continue reading "Title II, Fibre-to-the-Cell, Skype for Browsers, HD WiFi, AWS: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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    November 15, 2014

    What is the Future of the Network?


    We’re launching a new Research Stream on the Future of the Network to look at the key strategic issues in the design, development and delivery of the network, and we’d like your input on the key issues through a short online survey here. We want to understand the specific issues and questions you need to address, and to get your steer on our current draft agenda.

    The Stream will cover fixed and mobile networks, and issues including: the impact and direction of regulation and technologies, new network business models, the ‘spectrum crunch’, 3G/4G/5G, net neutrality and beyond, the future of WiFi, IoT networks, the extent of fibre, convergence of fixed and mobile networks, backhaul strategies, the true network impact of SDN and NFV, and more.
    Future of the Networks Stream Nob 2014.png
    So whether you’re from a telecoms company, network or systems vendor, regulator, or anyone else interested in driving the direction of the network of the future, we’d really value your input here. If you’d like to get involved in any other way, please email contact@telco2.net.

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    November 13, 2014

    Introducing our new research streams: Cloud & Enterprise ICT, Dealing with Disruption, The Future of the Network and Telco 2.0 Transformation.


    We’re excited to announce the launch of four new in-depth research streams that address key areas of strategy and implementation:

    • Dealing with Disruption: This stream helps executives identify threats and opportunities arising from disruption in communications, commerce and content, and the actions required to deal with it.
    • Cloud & Enterprise ICT: Ongoing analysis of the progress of and prospects for telcos addressing or seeking to address $Multi-Billion advanced ICT opportunities such as enterprise mobility, cloud, and vertical industry solutions (e.g. eHealth) in the enterprise market.
    • Telco 2.0 Transformation: This stream is a new service to helps executives identify opportunities, counter threats and manage the change required to enable the growth of $350+Bn of new revenue in the telecoms industry by 2020.
    • Coming soon - New Generation Networks: New business models and strategies for Next Generation Networks and how they can help deliver improved business performance. In the meantime we’d like your input into the programme here
    Each research stream is available as a subscription service and will provide:
  • A stream of c.10 new briefing reports a year
  • A searchable existing database of our existing research categorised to each research programme
  • Sessions at our executive brainstorms, plus networking and information sharing activities.

    The research streams build upon our nine years of unique research and are complimentary to our existing Executive Briefing Service: a comprehensive premium service for strategists and decision makers designing and leading strategy, innovation, and business model change.

    We’ll also be exploring the topics above at Digital Asia 2014 (2-4 December, Bali). For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.

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  • November 12, 2014

    Netflix: Threat or Opportunity?


    We’ve just published a new research paper ‘Netflix: Threat or Opportunity?’. Netflix’s success in the US and in Western Europe has demonstrated that consumers are willing to change how they watch and pay for TV and movies. As a result Netflix’s OTT proposition is challenging traditional pay TV models and changing how new broadband services are looking at content. For some players Netflix is a threat and for others an opportunity. So, how should content owners, channels, pay platforms and broadband providers respond?

    You can read an excerpt of the report here. We’ll also be exploring the topic of disruption further at Digital Asia (2-4 December, Bali), and are initiating coverage of a new research programme on Dealing with Disruption, and we’d really appreciate your input here. For more on any of these services, please email contact@telco2.net or call +44 207 247 5003.


    Netflix_Threat_or_Opportunity

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    November 10, 2014

    LatAm, Title II, Voice 2.0, Internet of Things: Telco 2.0 News Review

    ‘Digital Asia 2014’ Executive Brainstorm and Innovation Forum, run by STL Partners in collaboration with Telkom Indonesia, is designed to equip 250 specially-invited business leaders from across the region’s telecoms, enterprise and technology sectors with new, breakthrough ideas, methods and tools on how to grow significant new revenues in the next 12-18 months leveraging Mobile, Cloud and Big Data.

    Oi-Portugal Telecom - things become more serious; AT&T buys into Iusacell

    So Altice, aka the holding company for Numericable and now SFR, went ahead and put down a bid of €7bn for Portugal Telecom. Technically, PTel is part of the way through merging with Brazilian operator Oi, and Oi is not happy about it.

    Continue reading "LatAm, Title II, Voice 2.0, Internet of Things: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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    November 3, 2014

    BT, Alcatel, KPN, Numericable, Oi, Bharti: Telco 2.0 News Review

    ‘Digital Asia 2014’ Executive Brainstorm and Innovation Forum, run by STL Partners in collaboration with Telkom Indonesia, is designed to equip 250 specially-invited business leaders from across the region’s telecoms, enterprise and technology sectors with new, breakthrough ideas, methods and tools on how to grow significant new revenues in the next 12-18 months leveraging Mobile, Cloud and Big Data.

    BT Q2s focus on football; FiOS and U-Verse net-adds; Amazon stick; a look back at Netflix/Comcast

    BT’s Q2 results are out, and all the football seems to be working, up to a point. Although revenues are down 2%, EBITDA was up 1% and pre-tax profits up 13%. ThinkBroadband points out that the key metric here is that out of all the premises passed by BT’s FTTC rollout, 73.5% have taken BT services. Interestingly, they’re also going to start bundling Netflix, so it certainly looks like BT is deeply committed to video as its lead product.

    Continue reading "BT, Alcatel, KPN, Numericable, Oi, Bharti: Telco 2.0 News Review" »

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    October 30, 2014

    Telco Transformation: Preliminary research results show large variation in strategy and progress

    It is a couple of weeks since we started a piece of research focused on the transformation of Communications Service Providers (CSPs).  We thought it might entice more CSP executives to respond to our survey if we gave you a peak at some of the results.  A full analysis will be made available to survey respondents that fully complete the survey.

    The survey itself is available here and will take 10 minutes to complete.

    It covers:

    • CSP aspirations for digital services
    • Optimal investment levels for digital services and how close CSPs are to this at present
    • Key success factors for implementation of digital services and progress in addressing these

    Initial research results

    Turning to this last point around implementation key success factors, below is a chart summarising the results of the first 30 or so respondents with two factors revealed (we don’t show more lest we prejudice you before you complete the survey):

    CSP transformation, summary chart.png

    Source: CEP Transformation Survey, Preliminary research results only

    It is clear that, on average:

    • 8 out of 9 of the key success factors are rated as close to or above ‘Important’
    • 2 factors are rated as being particularly important - ‘Senior management support’ being one of these. 
    • All of the factors will take more than 2 years to ‘resolve’ with several close to averaging over two years (including ‘Prioritising digital services’). 


    So, in summary, there is a lot of important stuff to get right if CSPs are to transform themselves and successfully adopt new business models and services and it is going to take a while to get there.


    Digging a bit deeper shows wide variation

    As any statistician will tell you, averages are awfully misleading.  In this case, what they fail to show is the variance from respondents in the two factors we have revealed - ‘Senior management support’ and ‘Prioritising digital services’.  The charts below show the distribution of responses among all participants (with the bubble size representing the proportion of respondents) for both factors.

    CSP transformation, more details.png

    Source: CEP Transformation Survey, Preliminary research results only

    What these show is that:

    • While there is consistency among respondents about the importance of senior management support for CSP transformation, there is huge variability over progress.

    o   Worryingly, few respondents feel they yet have the support of senior management - Only 14% rated it as ‘Competed, In hand’

    o   Perhaps even more worrying is that 25% are unclear on how to progress winning over their senior management team

    • For ‘Prioritising digital services’ things are even more varied:

    o   Wide scope of responses on both importance to change and organisation progress

    o   Around 28% feel it is ‘Irrelevant’ or of ‘Limited Importance’ and most of these, unsurprisingly feel it will take more than 2 years to resolve or are unclear how to resolve (but presumably don’t care much about this) - the 5 bubbles in the bottom right

    o   Conversely, 46% feel it is either ‘Important’ or ‘Critical’ and are equally sceptical about their organisation’s ability to resolve - the 4 bubbles in the top right

     

    Once we have sufficient responses, we will share the detailed results with respondents and give insight about differences by region and, potentially, by individual CSP.   Will also explore how big CSPs think new digital services could become for them over time (in revenue terms) and how much they should be investing (as a proportion of their opex and capex budgets).

    The survey itself is available here and will take 10 minutes to complete

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    Telco 2.0 Strategy Report Out Now: Telco Strategy in the Cloud

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