Up to a 1/3 decline feared in Voice and Messaging revenues in 3 years
This chart highlights the serious concerns we’re now seeing for messaging and voice revenues across the telco industry.
The c.300+ Telco 2.0 community members we asked in late 2011 across our EMEA and APAC Brainstorms predicted remarkably similar declines, which were also in keeping with our findings in the ‘Dealing with the Disruptors’ report.
While it’s difficult to take these views as a definitive absolute guide to the ultimate revenue impact, many telcos worldwide are starting to see real impacts from so-called ‘Over-The-Top’ (OTT) services, which were unambiguously identified by delegates as the main cause of these predicted drops. One senior participant commented that some telco finance folk would be shocked to see these views so widely held in the industry, although others said that such scenarios were already being considered.
As can be seen above, delegates from our APAC brainstorm feared more for mobile voice revenues than their EMEA counterparts, who were more concerned about messaging revenues. This is in part because a higher proportion of APAC voice revenues are pre-paid and not in-bundle, and the lower smartphone penetrations in the more prevalent emerging markets in APAC compared to EMEA (more on the brainstorms here).
This leads us on to two developments for 2012: we’ll be looking in-depth again at strategies for optimising voice and messaging in 2012 (more on our research agenda here); and members of the Telco 2.0 subscription service can now access slides, charts and reports from the two most recent brainstorms here.
Email firstname.lastname@example.org or call +44 (0) 20 7247 5003 to find out more about our research or the next brainstorms.