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Telcos could lose up to $172bn from core revenues in 5 years

Our latest major report The Future Value of Voice and Messaging shows that telcos could lose up to $172bn from core revenues in five years if they don’t make dramatic improvements to their voice and messaging strategies.

summary V&M forecast slide.png

The declines are due to so-called ‘Over The Top’ (OTT) competition, vulnerable pricing structures, economic pressures and societal changes. The research shows how Telcos can fight to reduce this loss by $80bn and improve their relevance to customers through intelligent optimisation of prices and bundles, service enablement, exploiting new standards such as WebRTC and VoLTE, creative approaches to own brand OTT services, and a greater focus on enterprise communications.

It includes detailed forecasts for 9 major developed markets (US, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy, Singapore, Taiwan), in which the total decline is forecast between $92bn (-25%) and $172bn (-46%) on a $375bn base between 2012 and 2018, giving telcos an $80bn opportunity to fight for.

The report also shows impacts and implications for other technology players including vendors and partners, and general lessons for competing with disruptive players in all markets.

One of the most surprising things the report shows is how effective some telco strategies have been in defending against disruptive competitors like WhatsApp. Then again, there are some markets, such as Spain, where the combination of telco pricing and economic conditions have played right into the hands of the so-called ‘OTT Players’.

Equally, there are some great opportunities for telcos to build new value, particularly in the Enterprise market, where some of the more traditional technology companies like Cisco face increasingly disruptive competition from players like Google and Microsoft.

More on the report

This report provides an independent and holistic view of voice and messaging market, looking in detail at trends, drivers and detailed forecasts, the latest developments, and the opportunities for all players involved. The analysis will save valuable time, effort and money by providing realistic forecasts of future potential, and a fast-track to developing and / or benchmarking a leading-edge strategy and approach in digital communications.

It contains:

  • Our independent, external market-level forecasts of voice and messaging in 9 selected markets (US, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy, Singapore, and Taiwan).
  • Best practice and leading-edge strategies in the design and delivery of new voice and messaging services (leading to higher customer satisfaction and lower churn).
  • The factors that will drive best and worst case performance.
  • The intentions, strategies, strengths and weaknesses of formerly adjacent players now taking an active role in the Voice & Messaging market (e.g. Google & Microsoft).
  • Case studies of Enterprise Voice applications including Tropo, Twilio and Unified Communications solutions such as Microsoft Office 365.
  • Case studies of Telco OTT & enterprise Voice and Messaging services such as Telefonica’s TuGo and Vodafone One Net.
  • Lessons from case studies of leading-edge new voice and messaging applications globally such as WhatsApp, KakaoTalk and other so-called ‘Over The Top’ (OTT) Players.
It comprises a concise executive summary, and contains 260 pages and 163 figures.

A summary of the report can be found here.

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