The Brutal Future is Here: Europe's woes hit Voda and Telefonica
In our recent European Mobile: The Future's Not Bright, It's Brutal Executive Briefing, we predicted that European operators faced a grim future.
Even in the UK and Germany, the markets with the brightest future, STL Partners forecasts a respective 19% and 20% decline in mobile core services (voice, messaging and data) revenues by 2020. The UK has less far to fall simply because the market has already contracted over the last 2-3 years whereas the German market has continued to grow. We forecast a decline of 34% in France over the same period.
In Italy and, in particular, Spain we forecast a brutal decline of 47% and 61% respectively. Overall, STL Partners anticipates a reduction of 36% or €30 billion in core mobile service revenues by 2020. This equates to around €50 billion for Europe as a whole.
Like the medical profession, we don't always like being correct when our diagnoses are pessimistic. So it is with some regret that we note that our forecasts are being borne out by the latest reports from from southern Europe. Vodafone has been forced into a loss for H1 2012, after it wrote down the value of its Spanish and Italian OpCos by £5.9bn. Here's why:
The writedown is of course non-cash, and those of us who remember Chris Gent's Vodafone will be familiar with the sensation. But the reasons for it could not be more real. Service revenue has fallen sickeningly, down 7.9% across Europe, 1.4% groupwide.
See the rest of our detailed analysis in full on our research portal. It includes analysis of Telefonica's results as well as Vodafone's.